Hurricane jitters begin today

The good news is that forecaster William Gray has again lowered his predicted number of 2002 storms.

By DAVID BALLINGRUD, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published June 1, 2002

Today is the first day of the 2002 hurricane season, so let's get right to it.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami reported Friday that satellite images revealed a broad area of low pressure in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to drift westward. It is not showing signs of development.

And there's another one south of Cuba -- an area of clouds, thunderstorms and gusty winds -- but it's not expected to organize into a tropical storm either.

It's that time again. The forecasters of the Hurricane Center are back on the job.

"We're ready," said hurricane specialist James Franklin. The computer models have been "tweaked" in the off season, he said, "and we've gotten much cleverer about how to use satellite data."

For the next six months, from today until December, Floridians will live with one ear tuned for news of dangerous storms. What better way to start the 2002 season than with a bit of good news?

Colorado State University forecaster William Gray on Friday lowered his predicted number of 2002 storms. It's the second time he has trimmed the number of expected storms since he issued his first forecast on Dec. 7.

At that time, he predicted 13 tropical storms, with eight of those becoming hurricanes and four of the eight developing into intense, or major, storms. In shorthand: 13, eight and four.

In April, he revised those numbers to 12, seven and three.

On Friday, noting that Atlantic sea surface temperatures have been cooler than expected, he dropped all three categories again, to 11, six and two. He also said that El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean still might become strong enough in late summer to inhibit the development of Atlantic storms.

The downward trend is good news, of course, but even Gray's latest and lowest numbers would make up an average season, one with plenty of potential for trouble.

"The public hasn't seen a land-falling hurricane in two seasons," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, "and we know from experience, out of sight is out of mind."

In fact, Gray noted, the last 19 Atlantic hurricanes during the past 21/2 years have not crossed the U.S. coastline, although some tropical storms have.

"We foresee (this year's) activity to be typical of the average hurricane seasons between 1950-2001," said Gray, "but the probability of United States hurricane landfall will be above average."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the governmental parent of the Hurricane Center. It has issued a season hurricane prediction, too.

The NOAA outlook is for normal activity, or perhaps slightly above normal: nine to 13 tropical storms, six to eight hurricanes, two or three of those classified as major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).

Miami-Dade says it's ready for storms

MIAMI -- On the eve of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, Miami-Dade County officials said Friday that they are better prepared to handle tropical weather than they were 10 years ago, when Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida.

Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas said the county is improving its canal and drainage system -- at a cost of $350-million in federal and county funds -- to prevent flooding. Another county program is putting wind shutters on about 1,000 houses owned by low-income elderly residents, he said.

"While we've had events in the last 10 years that have caused a lot of damage, we've learned from them, and we all think that we're much, much better prepared," Penelas said.

Penelas said a Hurricane Andrew Memorial will be unveiled in August on the hurricane's 10-year anniversary. A local artist will paint a mural at Metrozoo, which was closed for three months after Andrew because of heavy damage. Some zoo exhibits did not reopen for more than eight years.

"This season is particularly important as we remember the destruction that was caused by Hurricane Andrew," said Rob Doughty, spokesman for the American Red Cross of Greater Miami and the Keys, which runs evacuation shelters during hurricanes.

Andrew was one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history, causing $30.5-billion in damage and killing 42 people in Florida. About 140,000 houses were destroyed, and 160,000 people were evacuated.

The hurricane season begins today and runs through Nov. 30.

-- Associated Press

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